The Indians traded Yan Gomes today, and as can be expected, Twitter was completely rationale about the move. Ok, not so much.
But this was a move that was necessary for the Cleveland Indians, even though it does not directly improve the 2019 roster. Gomes is due a little over $27 million over the next 3 seasons. It's not a ridiculous sum, but for a team that operates in the mid market, it's steep for a catcher that has largely underachieved for the past 3 seasons.
The Indians operated at a $145 million payroll last season, the largest in club history and 14th highest in the big leagues. That doesn't account for arbitration eligible players, such as Francisco Lindor, who will go from making $500,000 in 2018 to around $10 million in 2019. Trevor Bauer's salary will jump from just over $6 million to somewhere in the $10 million range. Corey Kluber will make over $17 million next season, getting a raise due to a kicker in his contract that set in once he finished in the top 3 in the American League Cy Young voting.
Yes, Gomes was an All-Star in 2018 (watered down position, but nonetheless). His 2.6 Wins Above Replacement last season was higher than his previous 3 seasons combined. Of course, Gomes is most identified as a defensive catcher, where over his career, he has thrown out 35% of would-be base stealers, the 7th highest rate among active players. Last season, he was 12th in Frame Rate (essentially, a statistic that combines framing pitches with blocking balls in the dirt). Teammate Roberto Perez was 5th. He is beloved by the Indians' pitching staff and an excellent game caller.
I'm sure that the Indians did not take this move lightly. It is particularly disappointing to hear that they got back a AA prospect, Daniel Johnson, and a 25 year-old relief pitcher, Jefry Rodriguez, who made his major league debut just last year. Johnson, 23, was the 7th highest rated prospect in the Washington Nationals farm system. He is a left handed hitting outfielder that plays with speed, but he is at a minimum of a year away from contributing at the big league level. He hit .265 last season with a .327 OBP. Rodriguez will likely open the year in the Tribe bullpen, but he posted an ERA of over 5 in a short stint with the Nationals last season. The trade also includes a player-to-be-named later coming to the Indians. Yes, technically Michael Brantley was once a PTBNL, but that was a special circumstance where the Indians had their choice of prospect to nab from the Milwaukee Brewers farm system due to a technicality. It is unlikely to expect much from the PTBNL.
Bottom line: The Indians are desperately trying to increase flexibility. Jason Kipnis is due $14.6 million in 2019, with a club option for 2020 ($2.5 million buyout, which they will exercise). Unless the Indians eat a minimum of half of that contract, or attach a top 10 organizational prospect (similar to what the Mariners are trying to do to get rid of Robinson Cano), he will be on the club next season. Ditto for Edwin Encarnacion, who is due to make over $21 million next season, with a club option for 2020 ($5 million buyout, which, again, they will exercise). In hindsight, the Encarnacion contract has hampered their flexibility and not paid off on the field, as he has posted just a 1.9 WAR this past season, his lowest since 2011. Until 2018, his 2017 WAR of 2.8 had been his lowest mark since 2011.
My opinion on the trade? Right now, it's an incomplete. I don't know how the Indians are going to use this little bit of financial flexibility they have created. Gomes was due to make just over $7 million in 2019, will that money just be used to pay raises to players like Lindor and Bauer? Or will the Indians use that money and go after a free agent? Adam Jones is an intriguing name. The long time Baltimore Orioles centerfielder may not be the All-Star player he once was, but still managed to hit .281 with 15 home runs last year. He is considered a corner outfielder at this stage of his career.
One thing is clear: The Indians were not in the same class as the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox last season. Hell, you can even throw the New York Yankees into that mix. They played last season like they were a flat glass of ginger ale. Still good, just without that fizz. This move weakens the team that as it was, got demolished by the Astros in the Division Series. Gomes was one of the few Indians in that series to put up any quality at-bats. The Indians are far from done making trades, but this first one is far from ideal. Roberto Perez, for as good defensively as he is, hit a whopping .168 last season. He hit all season long how the Indians hit in the playoffs (I'll grant you, that was a cheap shot).
The next domino to fall will be Trevor Bauer, and it should be. Bauer's contract is not really the problem, although the fact that over the next 2 seasons, he will most likely make in the neighborhood of $30 million through arbitration does not help. He will not be back in an Indians uniform after 2020, which he all but confirmed on an appearance on the MLB Network on Thursday. Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier today that the Indians and pitcher Carlos Carassco were making progress towards a contract extension, which is finally a piece of good news for Indians fans. Carassco, like Bauer, is only signed through 2020. Corey Kluber is signed through 2021, the same year in which Lindor's contract is up.
The time is now to trade Bauer. The extra year of club control for Kluber is huge for keeping the Indians' window for contention open, as once again, that will be Lindor's final year in an Indians' uniform. My prediction? The Atlanta Braves just signed Josh Donaldson to a 1 year, $23 million deal. They are in "win-now" mode, and have the young major league talent that the Indians covet to get a deal done. Look for them to be involved in discussions.
My guess is that Patrick Corbin, the most sought after starting pitcher in this year's free agent class, signs pretty early, as in before the winter meetings that take place in December. All indications are that he is wanting to make a quick decision, and unfortunately, it'll probably be the Yankees. After that, the Indians will hold all the cards. My guess is Trevor Bauer is wearing another uniform by Christmas.
But this was a move that was necessary for the Cleveland Indians, even though it does not directly improve the 2019 roster. Gomes is due a little over $27 million over the next 3 seasons. It's not a ridiculous sum, but for a team that operates in the mid market, it's steep for a catcher that has largely underachieved for the past 3 seasons.
The Indians operated at a $145 million payroll last season, the largest in club history and 14th highest in the big leagues. That doesn't account for arbitration eligible players, such as Francisco Lindor, who will go from making $500,000 in 2018 to around $10 million in 2019. Trevor Bauer's salary will jump from just over $6 million to somewhere in the $10 million range. Corey Kluber will make over $17 million next season, getting a raise due to a kicker in his contract that set in once he finished in the top 3 in the American League Cy Young voting.
Yes, Gomes was an All-Star in 2018 (watered down position, but nonetheless). His 2.6 Wins Above Replacement last season was higher than his previous 3 seasons combined. Of course, Gomes is most identified as a defensive catcher, where over his career, he has thrown out 35% of would-be base stealers, the 7th highest rate among active players. Last season, he was 12th in Frame Rate (essentially, a statistic that combines framing pitches with blocking balls in the dirt). Teammate Roberto Perez was 5th. He is beloved by the Indians' pitching staff and an excellent game caller.
I'm sure that the Indians did not take this move lightly. It is particularly disappointing to hear that they got back a AA prospect, Daniel Johnson, and a 25 year-old relief pitcher, Jefry Rodriguez, who made his major league debut just last year. Johnson, 23, was the 7th highest rated prospect in the Washington Nationals farm system. He is a left handed hitting outfielder that plays with speed, but he is at a minimum of a year away from contributing at the big league level. He hit .265 last season with a .327 OBP. Rodriguez will likely open the year in the Tribe bullpen, but he posted an ERA of over 5 in a short stint with the Nationals last season. The trade also includes a player-to-be-named later coming to the Indians. Yes, technically Michael Brantley was once a PTBNL, but that was a special circumstance where the Indians had their choice of prospect to nab from the Milwaukee Brewers farm system due to a technicality. It is unlikely to expect much from the PTBNL.
Bottom line: The Indians are desperately trying to increase flexibility. Jason Kipnis is due $14.6 million in 2019, with a club option for 2020 ($2.5 million buyout, which they will exercise). Unless the Indians eat a minimum of half of that contract, or attach a top 10 organizational prospect (similar to what the Mariners are trying to do to get rid of Robinson Cano), he will be on the club next season. Ditto for Edwin Encarnacion, who is due to make over $21 million next season, with a club option for 2020 ($5 million buyout, which, again, they will exercise). In hindsight, the Encarnacion contract has hampered their flexibility and not paid off on the field, as he has posted just a 1.9 WAR this past season, his lowest since 2011. Until 2018, his 2017 WAR of 2.8 had been his lowest mark since 2011.
My opinion on the trade? Right now, it's an incomplete. I don't know how the Indians are going to use this little bit of financial flexibility they have created. Gomes was due to make just over $7 million in 2019, will that money just be used to pay raises to players like Lindor and Bauer? Or will the Indians use that money and go after a free agent? Adam Jones is an intriguing name. The long time Baltimore Orioles centerfielder may not be the All-Star player he once was, but still managed to hit .281 with 15 home runs last year. He is considered a corner outfielder at this stage of his career.
One thing is clear: The Indians were not in the same class as the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox last season. Hell, you can even throw the New York Yankees into that mix. They played last season like they were a flat glass of ginger ale. Still good, just without that fizz. This move weakens the team that as it was, got demolished by the Astros in the Division Series. Gomes was one of the few Indians in that series to put up any quality at-bats. The Indians are far from done making trades, but this first one is far from ideal. Roberto Perez, for as good defensively as he is, hit a whopping .168 last season. He hit all season long how the Indians hit in the playoffs (I'll grant you, that was a cheap shot).
The next domino to fall will be Trevor Bauer, and it should be. Bauer's contract is not really the problem, although the fact that over the next 2 seasons, he will most likely make in the neighborhood of $30 million through arbitration does not help. He will not be back in an Indians uniform after 2020, which he all but confirmed on an appearance on the MLB Network on Thursday. Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier today that the Indians and pitcher Carlos Carassco were making progress towards a contract extension, which is finally a piece of good news for Indians fans. Carassco, like Bauer, is only signed through 2020. Corey Kluber is signed through 2021, the same year in which Lindor's contract is up.
The time is now to trade Bauer. The extra year of club control for Kluber is huge for keeping the Indians' window for contention open, as once again, that will be Lindor's final year in an Indians' uniform. My prediction? The Atlanta Braves just signed Josh Donaldson to a 1 year, $23 million deal. They are in "win-now" mode, and have the young major league talent that the Indians covet to get a deal done. Look for them to be involved in discussions.
My guess is that Patrick Corbin, the most sought after starting pitcher in this year's free agent class, signs pretty early, as in before the winter meetings that take place in December. All indications are that he is wanting to make a quick decision, and unfortunately, it'll probably be the Yankees. After that, the Indians will hold all the cards. My guess is Trevor Bauer is wearing another uniform by Christmas.
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